In the early hours of this morning, the United States announced a new round of new crown epidemic relief plan, with a scale of one trillion US dollars, or about 7 trillion yuan.
With the anticipation of the stimulus plan and the fact that Trump has not been infected by the White House security adviser who has been diagnosed with the new crown, the three major US stock indexes have also become popular across the board.
Large technology stocks collectively rose, Apple rose 2.37%, Amazon rose 1.54%, Netflix rose 3.16%, Google rose 1.41%, Facebook rose 1.21%, and Microsoft rose 1.27%. After the US government allocated $472 million to Moderna for research on the new crown pneumonia vaccine, Moderna’s stock price rose by 9.2%.
And this week, US stocks will usher in the peak of corporate earnings, including McDonald’s, Pfizer, Google’s parent company Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and AMD will release quarterly performance reports, and the trend of technology stocks remains uncertain.
After the announcement of the new round of stimulus plan, the market also expects that the recovery of crude oil demand will be better to a certain extent, and international crude oil futures will rise slightly.
Directly send money, 8400 “per person”, is it not optimistic that the stimulus plan is passed?
In terms of specific details, the above plan was announced by the US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Mitch McConnell) early this morning, Beijing time.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (Chuck Grassley) said that the expanded federal unemployment protection will be set at 70% of workers’ previous wages, to replace the $600 weekly unemployment benefit due this week;
The proposal will also directly pay $1,200 and $2,400 to individuals and couples respectively, and will set the same eligibility for the issuance of checks approved in March: the threshold for issuance of checks is an average income of $75,000 and individuals with an average income of $99,000 or more Or couples cannot receive it. In addition, an additional US$500 will be provided for each dependent.
This means that every citizen who meets the requirements can receive a check of at least US$1,200, which is approximately RMB 8,400.
In addition, the proposal will allow small businesses whose income has fallen by more than 50% to apply for a second “Payroll Protection Program (PPP)” loan; it will provide 105 billion US dollars to help schools reopen in the fall, and 16 billion US dollars to help States have improved their detection capabilities for the new coronavirus.
When McConnell outlined the plan today, he also urged the Democratic Party to reach an agreement as soon as possible. He also mentioned that “the pandemic is not over, the economic pain is not over, so Congress cannot end it either.”
The dollar is no longer strong? Many analysts sing empty
Bridgewater CEO Dario is not optimistic
On Sunday local time, Dario, the founder of Bridgewater Fund and billionaire investor, warned in an interview with Fox TV that the friction between China and the United States may evolve into a “capital war” and eventually hurt And U.S. dollars.
He said, “If the (US) law stipulates’do not invest in China’ or even withhold the US’s payments to China’s bonds, they will have a significant impact on the value of the US dollar.”
Dario believes that the United States is its own worst enemy, and (this enemy) is already endangering the stability of the dollar.
Dario added, “If we don’t work together and do the right thing, we don’t increase productivity, we don’t earn more than we spend, and we don’t build stability to maintain currency and balance sheets, then we will decline.” Dari Ou bluntly said, “We are declining because of these things.”
Yale University economist Stephen Roach recently stated that the privileged era of the US dollar as the world’s main reserve currency is coming to an end.
Scott Minerd, a chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, said that there is no sign that the world is questioning the value of the dollar, but it is clear that the dollar’s market share as the world’s reserve currency is slowly losing.
The largest gold ETF holdings are still rising, and US stocks of gold concept stocks soar
While gold is rising, funds are also pouring in wildly, and the gold holdings of related gold-themed ETFs are also rising steadily.
The latest data shows that the world’s largest gold ETF – SPDR Gold Trust’s holdings increased by 5.84 tons from the previous day, an increase of 0.48%, and the current holdings are 1,234.65 tons.
At the beginning of this year, the fund’s gold holdings were less than 900 tons. Since the beginning of this year, the fund’s gold holdings have risen 37%.
While funds are pursuing gold ETFs, gold concept stocks have also risen. Last night, the US gold concept stocks also rose.
Can gold go up? Yesterday, the UBS Wealth Management Investment Director’s Office expressed a view that the price of gold is expected to rise to the next level, and the forecast for the next year’s gold price will be raised accordingly: the target for the second half of the year will rise from the original US$1,900 to US$2,000, next March and June The target was raised from the original 1850 and 1,800 dollars to 1950 and 1,900 dollars.
Goldman Sachs also said on the same day that the environment where China outperforms the United States is an ideal choice for gold, which gives us more confidence in the target price of $2,000 per ounce.
A weaker dollar will drive the collapse of US stocks? Wall Street views are now divided
There are voices in the market that, theoretically speaking, a weaker U.S. dollar will reduce the attractiveness of all U.S. dollar-denominated assets to a certain extent, and U.S. stocks happen to be U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
ClearBridge Investments analyst Jeffrey Schulze believes that the negative correlation between the trade-weighted broad dollar index and the S&P 500 index has recently become closer. Schultz said, “The weakening of the U.S. dollar does not necessarily reflect the weakness of the U.S. economy, but relatively speaking, it reflects the strength of the global economy. This does not mean that the U.S. stock market is bound to collapse, but in the next six months, the U.S. The stock market’s performance is likely to fall short of other markets around the world.”
Gaurav Carolina, director of the macro strategy at Oxford Economics, pointed out last week that in the 1970s, late 1980s, and mid-2000s, the U.S. dollar had experienced bear markets. “These events have not only failed to disrupt global markets and Economic stability, on the contrary, is quite conducive to growth.” Sarria also pointed out that since the 1970s, during most of the era of free-floating exchange rates, there has been an inverse relationship between the trend of the US dollar and global economic growth.
After analyzing historical data, Nicholas Colas, the founder of DataTrek Research, pointed out that when the S&P 500 bottomed out during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the trade-weighted dollar index peaked at the same time. Earlier this year, Standard & Poor’s bottomed out due to the new coronavirus, and this has also happened. Colas pointed out that on March 23 this year, the index hit a record high of 126.47, and then fluctuated downward.
Colas believes that “don’t worry about the weakening of the dollar as a warning sign that the U.S. stock market is turning down. History has proved the opposite.”