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Jul 29, 2020
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Strong shocks break through the box, and market sentiment turns to greed

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Market sentiment turned to greedy exchange volume: the average daily volume of the nine major exchanges increased by 6.11%. Digital asset turnover rate: the cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 1.86%. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.07%. This week, OKEx’s weekly contract price changed from premium to discount.

1. This week’s market trend: strong shocks break through the box, and market sentiment turns to greed

As of the statistical time of the report (July 27, 2019), the average global market value of blockchain assets this week was 285.189 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 5.12% over the same period last week; the daily average 24-hour trading volume of the market was 64.075 billion U.S. dollars, compared with last week The average value rose by 24.23%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 10.34%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 8.73%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 9.12%.

This week, the market broke through the box section and reached a new level. Large, medium and small market value currencies rose across the board, the market volume can be simultaneously amplified, and investor sentiment turned into greed. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the trend of last week at a short-term sideways movement near US$27-280 billion and then oscillated upward into the upward channel. It started to rise from below US$290 billion on Sunday, and broke through the US$290 billion and US$300 billion barriers, reaching a maximum of 3080. Billion US dollars then fell back slightly and closed at around 307 billion US dollars. The daily average value of the total market value rose 5.12% from last week. In the external market, affected by the cooling of Sino-US relations, market risk aversion has increased this week, and various risk assets have generally fallen. Gold prices have risen for the seventh consecutive week, reaching a new high.

On the disk, after the Bitcoin halving, the market has experienced a sideways consolidation for more than two months. This week, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated upwards and hit a new high in nearly 5 months. 10,300 U.S. dollars, the support level of various indicators moved up, investor sentiment is improving, attracting more external traffic attention, overall trading activity has rebounded, and short-term bullish sentiment has strengthened; during the same period, the total amount of USDT circulation increased by more than 3.3% this week. The USDT balance has increased, the USDT premium rate has risen for a short time, and the willingness of OTC funds to enter the market has increased. Generally speaking, there is a certain underpinning force in the price, and the upward channel is expected to continue to extend; considering the heavy chip pressure above it, there is a profitable stage to cash in There is the possibility of a phased step-back. In the short term, it may maintain a high level and change hands. You can buy on dips, and continue to hold in accordance with the trend before falling below the short-term moving average. At the same time, it is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risk and strictly control their positions, and optimize the platform. Prevent the liquidation caused by pin callbacks and platform downtime.

2. Exchange volume: The average daily volume increase of the nine major exchanges was 6.11%

The total volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 786.169 billion yuan, an increase of 45.296 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 6.11%. The average daily volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 112.310 billion yuan, an increase from last week. 6.471 billion yuan, an increase of 6.11%; from the perspective of the trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume are Huobi (43.57%), Binance (26.91%), OKEX (19.88%), the top three exchanges The trading volume accounted for 90.36% of the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges, and the top three accounted for an increase of 0.13% compared to last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 48.347 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 16.43%. Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week Compared with last week, the volume decreased by 11.903 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.33%, and the cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week increased by 5.429 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 3.60%.

From the perspective of a longer time dimension, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is actively improving under the effect of production cuts, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; the global spread of the epidemic in March, the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panic declines, and the liquidity crisis Encrypted assets have also been hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan. With the continuous force of global multinational policies and strong stimulus, global assets have gradually bottomed out and stabilized. The global risk appetite is gradually restored. The crypto market has clear signs of bottoming funds. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, while market volatility increased; after the completion of the halving, the market reaction was flat and the volatility narrowed, and the overall range Fluctuations, the trading volume shows a downward trend. This week is the 11th week after Bitcoin’s halving. Bitcoin price entered an upward channel near USD 9,200, with a shocking increase of over USD 10,000. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges increased by 6.1% compared with last week. The average value is 112.310 billion yuan. Considering that the current major exchanges have the behavior of scalping, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

Global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 4.52% to 38.130 million U.S. dollars, Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 0.59% to 10.114 million, Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 6.27% to 1023.56 billion bolivars, according to the current Venezuelan Calculated by the exchange ratio between Bolivar and Renminbi (1 CNY = 34507.00VES), the OTC BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 29,662,290; the OTC BTC transaction volume calculated at the current exchange rate in the previous statistical week was about 3,371,135 million. A decrease of 12.01% in the previous week.

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell 1.86

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week was 214.12%, down 4.05% from last week, or 1.86%; the highest turnover rate was 37.98%, the lowest was 25.42%, and the extreme difference was 12.55 percentage points; among them, ETC changed hands. The rate ranked first, up 0.51% from last week.

The top three in terms of cumulative turnover this week are ETC (536.49% this week, up 0.51% from last week, or 0.10%), and LTC (373.21% this week, down 19.51% from last week, or 4.97%). , EOS (370.11% this week, up 33.43% from last week, or 9.93%); the bottom three in the cumulative turnover rate are ADA (51.69% this week, down 24.91% from last week, or 32.52%), BTC (64.64% this week, 1.08% up from last week, or 1.70%), XLM (79.49% this week, down 59.20% from last week, or 42.69%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETH, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.07%, USDT balance increased by 2.20%

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2.419701 million BTC, a decrease of 0.07%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2.878 billion USDT, an increase of 2.20%; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) was 10.215 billion US dollars, which exceeded 100 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.38% from the same period last week.

5. USDT premium rate: USDT premium rate rebounded and maintained a positive premium in late trading

The OTC premium rate reflects the premium level of OTC prices and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of OTC funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that OTC funds enter the market positively, and vice versa means that OTC funds enter the market without motivation. High, even funds are fleeing; the on-market premium rate reflects the premium level of on-market prices and is also a tool to capture the emotions of on-market funds.

This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated upward for a short period of time, hitting a new high, hitting a new high in the near future. The opening premium of the Kraken exchange USD/USD trading pair this week was 0.03%, the highest premium was 0.21%, and the closing premium was 0.12%, reflecting the increased willingness to enter the market, but Overall, the current premium level is still relatively low.

6. Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility rose sharply and investor sentiment turned greedy

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market. The higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence on the market outlook.

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and strengthened, up 91.30% from last week; this week’s Bitcoin volatility index opened at 0.69, the highest value was 1.84, the lowest value was 0.59, and the closing value was 1.32. The closing value was up 91.30% from the same period last week; The Fear & Greed Index was 41 points 7 days ago, the highest is 55 points this week, and the lowest is 44 points. The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 55 points, an increase of 14 points from the same period last week. As the market picks up, investor sentiment has turned from fear. For greed.

7. Futures contracts: the volume can amplify and fluctuate upwards, short-term futures premiums will be discounted

From the perspective of futures contracts, the price of forwarding contracts of different maturities fluctuated upward this week, and the market volume could be enlarged. The basis of contracts of different maturities expanded again, and the premium turned into a discount in the end. From the perspective of the term structure, OKEX’s current week’s contract price changed from premium to discount this week, with an average discount of 0.60%; the next week’s contract price changed from premium to discount, with an average discount of 0.38%; quarterly contract average premium of 0.74%, The premium dropped by 0.22 percentage points; BitMEX perpetual contracts have an average discount of 0.00%. OKEx’s current week’s contract price has the latest discount of 0.86%, the quarterly contract has the latest premium of 0.64%, and the BitMEX perpetual contract has the latest premium of 0.00%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short position ratio of the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market is 54.83%: 45.17% and long positions are dominant. After the Bitcoin halving, the price has fluctuated within a narrow range for more than two months. This week, the price broke the previous box range and reached above $10,000. Investor sentiment turned to greed. Short-term bullish sentiment strengthened. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risk and strictly control positions, Optimizing the platform to prevent liquidation caused by pin callbacks and platform downtime.

8. Macro perspective: All kinds of risk assets generally fall, and the prices of gold and bitcoin rise

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency deserves to be partially allocated as an alternative asset. For investors, the return on assets of various types of asset differentiation reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset class combinations, a broader investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk.

Affected by geopolitical factors, the market’s risk aversion has increased this week, with various risk assets generally falling, with Bitcoin’s earnings topping the list, and gold prices rising for the seventh consecutive week and reaching new highs. In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks collectively closed down late this week. The Dow fell 0.76%, ending a three-week-old rising trend; the Nasdaq fell 1.33%, falling for two consecutive weeks; the S&P 500 index fell 0.28%; COMEX gold futures rose nearly 5 this week % Reported at US$1900.3 per ounce, a record closing high for seven consecutive weeks; international oil prices collectively rose, and oil distribution rose 0.65% to US$43.42 per barrel. In the domestic stock market, the market surged earlier this week. After the United States asked China to close the Houston Consulate, China will close the US Embassy in Chengdu. Risk aversion has risen again. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37%. , The ChiNext Index fell 1.3%, the Science and Technology 50 fell 3.75%, both falling for two consecutive weeks, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.53% weekly to 24705.33 points.

Comparing the dynamic yields of various assets in the past three years, Bitcoin’s earnings performance is outstanding. The dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin in the past three years is 1534.35%, ranking first among various assets, and there is a large gap between the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, the performance of other asset returns was divergent. US stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 index rose by 29.78%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 61.35%; in addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -1.57% and gold rose by 51.87%.

Among all types of assets, the market value of digital currencies is the most volatile. In the process of bubble inflation and bubble bursting, the price of digital currencies has shown a trend of skyrocketing and falling. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic. Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction. After the completion of the halving, market sentiment has gradually weakened. Recently, the Bitcoin market has recovered and prices have risen again. The valuation is low. As the bubble squeezes out, digital currency deserves to be partially allocated as an alternative asset.

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market broke through the box section and reached a new level. Large, medium and small market value currencies rose across the board. The market volume can be amplified simultaneously, and market sentiment has turned into greed. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the trend of last week at a short-term sideways movement near US$27-280 billion and then oscillated upward into the upward channel. It started to rise from below US$290 billion on Sunday, and broke through the US$290 billion and US$300 billion barriers, reaching a maximum of 3080. Billion US dollars then fell back slightly and closed at around 307 billion US dollars. The daily average value of the total market value rose 5.12% from last week. In the external market, affected by the cooling of Sino-US relations, market risk aversion has increased this week, and various risk assets have generally fallen, and gold prices have risen to new highs for the seventh consecutive week.

From the disk perspective, after the Bitcoin halving, the market has experienced a sideways consolidation for more than two months. This week, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated upwards and hit a new high in nearly 5 months, breaking through the psychological price of $10,000 and standing firm for a short time, reaching the highest level. Breaking through US$10,300, the support level of various indicators has moved up, investor sentiment is improving, attracting more attention from external traffic, and overall trading activity has rebounded; during the same period, the total amount of USDT circulation increased by more than 3.3% this week, and the exchange’s USDT balance increased, The premium rate has risen in a short period of time, and the willingness of over-the-counter funds to enter the market has increased. Generally speaking, there is a certain underpinning force in the price, and the upward channel is expected to continue to extend; considering the heavy bargaining pressure on the top, there is a stepping back in the profit-making stage. Possibly, the short-term may maintain high volatility and change hands. You can open a position to buy on dips, and continue to hold in accordance with the trend before falling below the short-term moving average. At the same time, it is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risk and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent pin callbacks. Liquidation is caused by platform downtime and other reasons.

Exchange volume: The average daily volume increase of the nine major exchanges was 6.11%. This week, the total turnover of the nine major exchanges was 786.169 billion yuan, an increase of 45.296 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 6.11%. The average daily volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 112.310 billion yuan, an increase from last week. 6.471 billion yuan, an increase of 6.11%; from the perspective of the trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume are Huobi (43.57%), Binance (26.91%), OKEX (19.88%), the top three exchanges The trading volume accounted for 90.36% of the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges, and the top three accounted for an increase of 0.13% from last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 48.347 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 16.43%. Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week Compared with last week, the volume decreased by 11.903 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.33%, and the cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week increased by 5.429 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 3.60%.

Global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 4.52% to 38.130 million U.S. dollars, Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 0.59% to 10.114 million, Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 6.27% to 1023.56 billion bolivars, according to the current Venezuelan Calculated by the exchange ratio between Bolivar and Renminbi (1 CNY = 34507.00VES), the OTC BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 29,662,290; the OTC BTC transaction volume calculated at the current exchange rate in the previous statistical week was about 3,371,135 million. A decrease of 12.01% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 1.86%. The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week was 214.12%, down 4.05% from last week, or 1.86%; the highest turnover rate was 37.98%, the lowest was 25.42%, and the extreme difference was 12.55 percentage points, of which ETC changed hands. The rate ranked first, up 0.51% from last week. The top three in terms of cumulative turnover this week are ETC (536.49% this week, up 0.51% from last week, or 0.10%), and LTC (373.21% this week, down 19.51% from last week, or 4.97%). , EOS (370.11% this week, up 33.43% from last week, or 9.93%); the bottom three in the cumulative turnover rate are ADA (51.69% this week, down 24.91% from last week, or 32.52%), BTC (64.64% this week, 1.08% higher than last week, or 1.70%), XLM (79.49% this week, 59.20% lower than last week, or 42.69%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.07%, USDT balance increased by 2.20%. This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2.419701 million BTC, a decrease of 0.07%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2.878 billion USDT, an increase of 2.20%; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) was 10.215 billion US dollars, which exceeded 100 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.38% from the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: USDT premium rate rebounded and maintained a positive premium in late trading. This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated upward for a short period of time, hitting a new high. The Kraken exchange’s usdt/USD trading pair has an opening premium of 0.03% this week, a maximum premium of 0.21%, and a closing premium of 0.12%, reflecting the increased willingness to enter the market, but Overall, the current premium level is still relatively low.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility rose sharply, and investor sentiment turned greedy. This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and strengthened, up 91.30% from last week; this week’s Bitcoin volatility index opened at 0.69, the highest value was 1.84, the lowest value was 0.59, and the closing value was 1.32. The closing value was up 91.30% from the same period last week; The Fear & Greed Index was 41 points 7 days ago, the highest is 55 points this week, and the lowest is 44 points. The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 55 points, an increase of 14 points from the same period last week. As the market picks up, investor sentiment has turned from fear. For greed.

Futures contracts: The volume can amplify and fluctuate upwards, and short-term futures premiums will be discounted. The price of forwarding contracts of different maturities fluctuated upward this week, and the market volume could be enlarged. The basis of contracts of different maturities expanded again, and the premium turned to a discount in the late trading. From the perspective of the term structure, OKEX’s current week’s contract price changed from premium to discount this week, with an average discount of 0.60%; the next week’s contract price changed from premium to discount, with an average discount of 0.38%; quarterly contract average premium of 0.74%, The premium dropped by 0.22 percentage points; BitMEX perpetual contracts have an average discount of 0.00%. OKEx’s current week’s contract price has the latest discount of 0.86%, the quarterly contract has the latest premium of 0.64%, and the BitMEX perpetual contract has the latest premium of 0.00%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short position ratio of the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market is 54.83%: 45.17% and long positions are dominant. After the Bitcoin halving, the price has fluctuated within a narrow range for more than two months. This week, the price broke the previous box range and reached above $10,000. Investor sentiment turned to greed. Short-term bullish sentiment strengthened. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risk and strictly control positions, Optimizing the platform to prevent liquidation caused by pin callbacks and platform downtime.

Macroscopic view: Various risk assets have generally fallen, and the prices of gold and Bitcoin have risen. Affected by geopolitical factors, the market’s risk aversion has increased this week, with various risk assets generally falling, with Bitcoin’s earnings topping the list, and gold prices rising for the seventh consecutive week and reaching new highs. In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks collectively closed down late this week. The Dow fell 0.76%, ending a three-week-old rising trend; the Nasdaq fell 1.33%, falling for two consecutive weeks; the S&P 500 index fell 0.28%; COMEX gold futures rose nearly 5 this week % Reported at US$1900.3 per ounce, a record closing high for seven consecutive weeks; international oil prices collectively rose, and oil distribution rose 0.65% to US$43.42 per barrel. In the domestic stock market, the market surged earlier this week. After the United States asked China to close the Houston Consulate, China will close the US Embassy in Chengdu. Risk aversion has risen again. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37%. , The ChiNext Index fell 1.3%, the Science and Technology 50 fell 3.75%, both falling for two consecutive weeks, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.53% weekly to 24705.33 points.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Domestic and foreign regulatory policies exceed expectations

International geo-environmental changes exceed expectations

Risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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