Big market surprise! Gold and silver “high diving”, oil prices hit a new high in a year

Multiple data reports were frequently reported to be positive overnight. U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks all rose, U.S. bond yields rose, and gold and silver prices fell under pressure.

February 4, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that as of the week of January 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 779,000, which was lower than the 830,000 expected by Dow Jones survey economists.

Analysts believe that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States has declined last week, indicating that the labour market is stabilizing as the authorities begin to relax restrictions on companies related to the new crown epidemic.

As of the close of today’s morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively. The Dow rose 1.08%, the S&P 500 rose 1.09%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.23%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both reached new highs. However, retail stocks fell collectively, and Game Post fell more than 42%, down nearly 90% from the record high set at the end of last month.

Affected by factors such as rising U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the market waiting for the latest developments in U.S. stimulus measures, the precious metals market fell under pressure. As of today’s early morning close, gold closed down 2.26%, and silver closed down 1.8%.

Analysts believe that the rise in the US dollar and higher U.S. bond yields are the two main reasons for suppressing the rise in gold prices. The market is waiting for the results of US non-agricultural data, and it is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.

CITIC Futures analyst Yang Li believes that silver is gradually returning to fundamental value. The divergence of domestic and foreign silver futures indicates that the repressive power of my country’s silver production capacity and inventories may appear. The “fire tree and silver flower never night” scene of silver is expected to go out, while platinum, palladium and other precious metals are more worthy of attention.

Also, the US Energy Information Administration’s weekly data reproduction is good. Data show that as of the week of January 29, US crude oil inventories were 476 million barrels, a decrease of 990,000 barrels from the previous week; US gasoline demand decreased for two consecutive weeks, but gasoline demand was more than 10% higher than the same period in five years.

Affected by this news, the energy and chemical sector of the domestic futures market closed up in large areas yesterday. Among them, the main PVC futures contract rose 4.2%, the main styrene futures contract rose 3.2%, the main crude oil futures contract rose 2.9%, and the main methanol futures contract rose 2.7 %.

Li Wanying, senior energy and chemical analyst at the East China Sea Research Institute, said that in addition to US data, the crude oil market is currently releasing other positive signals.

It is reported that in the 14th ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production reduction allies, the market monitoring committee of OPEC and its production reduction allies did not mention changing oil policies. According to the plan, most member states are required to maintain stable production in February, while the largest exporter Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduced production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. Also, although the foreign epidemic situation is still spreading recently, the market still holds high expectations for vaccines.

It is worth noting that the cross-month inverse spread between New York crude oil and Brent crude oil is at the widest level in more than a year. In other words, the price of near-month contracts is higher than that of far-month contracts. Analysts believe that this is a signal that current demand and expected supply will tighten.

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